Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #590 of 1,000

P0587

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 33,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 317

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 683

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 441Deviation -R 2 242

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 683. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 546

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 776 to R 9 173
Finished ahead: 305 / 1,000 (30,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #489 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.281
Mean bets / session: 2.331
Loss multiplier: 1.0266×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,5% / 109,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 1355 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 5084 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 1 2542 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 139,99%

BaccaratR 6271 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6271 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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