Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #141 of 1,000

P0588

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 79,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 044

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 044

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 254Deviation R 1 298

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 044. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 003

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 862 to R 5 592
Finished ahead: 317 / 1,000 (31,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #428 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,67% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.262
Mean bets / session: 1.545
Loss multiplier: 1.1089×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,8% / 126,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5005 wagers · RTP 45,99%

CrashR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 350,00%

Craps / DiceR 5031 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5031 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 1 000,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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