Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #716 of 1,000

P0589

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 44,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 341

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 659

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 542Deviation -R 4 117

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 659. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 705

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 868 to R 12 694
Finished ahead: 305 / 1,000 (30,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #686 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,25% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.524
Mean bets / session: 1.973
Loss multiplier: 1.0721×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,4% / 145,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 3 2404 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 204,13%

Craps / DiceR 8101 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 8101 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8101 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies