Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #454 of 1,000

P0590

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 51,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 498

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 502

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 314Deviation -R 1 188

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 502. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 550

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 768 to R 5 181
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #494 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.55
Mean bets / session: 1.61
Loss multiplier: 1.0281×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,9% / 105,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 8006 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 6002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 6002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 3001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3001 wagers · RTP 307,76%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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