Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #674 of 1,000

P0591

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 32,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 937

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 063

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 342Deviation -R 3 721

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 063. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 361

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 450 to R 12 515
Finished ahead: 304 / 1,000 (30,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #581 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,21% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.324
Mean bets / session: 2.85
Loss multiplier: 1.0774×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,6% / 80,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 5924 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2 5924 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 2962 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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