Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #440 of 1,000

P0592

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 61,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 727

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 273

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 459Deviation -R 813

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 273. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 087

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 397 to R 7 390
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #558 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 20,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.646
Mean bets / session: 2.649
Loss multiplier: 1.094×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,7% / 130,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 91612 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4586 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2155 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BlackjackR 9724 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7293 wagers · RTP 70,56%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7293 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 166,67%

BaccaratR 4862 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 2431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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