Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #487 of 1,000

P0593

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 36,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 256

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 744

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 246Deviation -R 1 498

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 744. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 111

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 992 to R 4 781
Finished ahead: 292 / 1,000 (29,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #441 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.281
Mean bets / session: 1.427
Loss multiplier: 1.0902×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 86,6% / 128,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 2 3884 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 5971 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5971 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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