Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #183 of 1,000

P0594

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 280

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 280

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 124Deviation R 404

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 280. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 677

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 259 to R 3 249
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #382 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.291
Mean bets / session: 1.309
Loss multiplier: 1.0508×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,5% / 149,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3271 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 3271 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 3271 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3271 wagers · RTP 177,39%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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