Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #764 of 1,000

P0595

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 4,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 405

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 595

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 404Deviation -R 5 191

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 595. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 746

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 348 to R 9 192
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #515 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.341
Mean bets / session: 2.371
Loss multiplier: 1.1119×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,8% / 105,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 3839 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 9742 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4871 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4871 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BaccaratR 4871 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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