Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #756 of 1,000

P0596

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 26,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 563

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 437

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 560Deviation -R 4 877

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 437. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 254

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 548 to R 12 716
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #660 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.631
Mean bets / session: 2.52
Loss multiplier: 1.1118×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,1% / 98,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 1017 wagers · RTP 28,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 8862 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 8862 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 8862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BaccaratR 4431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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