Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #107 of 1,000

P0598

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 80,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 679

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 679

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 473Deviation R 3 152

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 679. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 220

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 822 to R 13 395
Finished ahead: 309 / 1,000 (30,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #569 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 20,68% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.566
Mean bets / session: 1.356
Loss multiplier: 1.1112×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,3% / 71,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 3805 wagers · RTP 180,00%

European RouletteR 1 7522 wagers · RTP 150,00%

BaccaratR 8761 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BlackjackR 8761 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8761 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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