Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #122 of 1,000

P0599

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 79,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 804

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 804

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 976Deviation R 2 780

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 804. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 401

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 426 to R 19 115
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #768 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.638
Mean bets / session: 2.906
Loss multiplier: 1.0646×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,9% / 94,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 8 55811 wagers · RTP 54,55%

CrashR 4 0008 wagers · RTP 343,75%

BaccaratR 3 1124 wagers · RTP 125,00%

European RouletteR 3 1124 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 7781 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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