Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #735 of 1,000

P0600

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 2,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 011

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 989

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 311Deviation -R 4 679

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 989. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 413

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 397 to R 7 350
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #473 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.254
Mean bets / session: 2.314
Loss multiplier: 1.0116×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,0% / 106,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 1 4733 wagers · RTP 41,67%

American RouletteR 1 4733 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 12,50%

BaccaratR 9822 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4911 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4911 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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