Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #52 of 1,000

P0603

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 93,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19 491

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 9 491

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 925Deviation R 10 417

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 9 491. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 749

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 986 to R 11 156
Finished ahead: 313 / 1,000 (31,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #614 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.933
Mean bets / session: 3.125
Loss multiplier: 1.4467×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,5% / 67,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 00816 wagers · RTP 125,00%

CrashR 3 44311 wagers · RTP 40,91%

BaccaratR 2 8179 wagers · RTP 122,22%

BlackjackR 2 5048 wagers · RTP 112,50%

American RouletteR 2 4118 wagers · RTP 38,95%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 1917 wagers · RTP 90,32%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9724 wagers · RTP 746,60%

European RouletteR 9393 wagers · RTP 700,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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