Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #938 of 1,000

P0604

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 1,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 295

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 705

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 847Deviation -R 8 858

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 705. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 041

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 376 to R 13 546
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #753 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.337
Mean bets / session: 4.22
Loss multiplier: 1.3449×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 85,7% / 52,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 5 04534 wagers · RTP 56,47%

Craps / DiceR 4 69523 wagers · RTP 84,47%

American RouletteR 3 79023 wagers · RTP 36,46%

BaccaratR 2 81420 wagers · RTP 96,37%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 30216 wagers · RTP 10,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3587 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3307 wagers · RTP 148,51%

BlackjackR 1 19711 wagers · RTP 74,35%

European RouletteR 7724 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 61610 wagers · RTP 32,47%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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