Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #8 of 1,000

P0605

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 97,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 45 352

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 35 352

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 211Deviation R 37 563

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 35 352. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 698

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 940 to R 29 505
Finished ahead: 258 / 1,000 (25,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #855 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,10% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.309
Mean bets / session: 3.935
Loss multiplier: 1.4224×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 86,2% / 80,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 15 37631 wagers · RTP 78,04%

Craps / DiceR 12 84517 wagers · RTP 129,70%

BlackjackR 9 89612 wagers · RTP 75,76%

BaccaratR 8 33010 wagers · RTP 98,00%

American RouletteR 7 4979 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 5009 wagers · RTP 131,22%

European RouletteR 4 1655 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 50014 wagers · RTP 82,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 1 850,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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