Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #765 of 1,000

P0606

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 50,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 384

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 616

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 560Deviation -R 4 056

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 616. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 642

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 719 to R 22 163
Finished ahead: 253 / 1,000 (25,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #778 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,76% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.017
Mean bets / session: 4.076
Loss multiplier: 1.4684×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 87,3% / 98,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 6 91418 wagers · RTP 11,89%

Craps / DiceR 6 61219 wagers · RTP 77,74%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 23217 wagers · RTP 41,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 11010 wagers · RTP 81,83%

CrashR 3 83310 wagers · RTP 13,40%

European RouletteR 3 57110 wagers · RTP 414,34%

BaccaratR 3 1998 wagers · RTP 58,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 43,75%

BlackjackR 1 3304 wagers · RTP 86,32%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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