Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #916 of 1,000

P0607

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 3,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 735

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 265

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 977Deviation -R 8 287

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 265. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 574

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 073 to R 13 228
Finished ahead: 302 / 1,000 (30,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #677 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.078
Mean bets / session: 4.014
Loss multiplier: 1.3908×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 90,5% / 80,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 90527 wagers · RTP 43,90%

Craps / DiceR 5 16025 wagers · RTP 75,85%

CrashR 3 52014 wagers · RTP 51,46%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 57311 wagers · RTP 158,12%

European RouletteR 1 6186 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 3725 wagers · RTP 18,66%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2716 wagers · RTP 46,81%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5983 wagers · RTP 69,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 4792 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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