Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #67 of 1,000

P0608

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 81,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 16 007

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 6 007

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 587Deviation R 8 594

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 6 007. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 058

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 819 to R 28 292
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #831 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,03% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.368
Mean bets / session: 3.693
Loss multiplier: 1.3071×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 93,1% / 90,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 16 39723 wagers · RTP 105,32%

American RouletteR 14 02420 wagers · RTP 191,47%

CrashR 13 35728 wagers · RTP 82,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 59718 wagers · RTP 119,72%

BlackjackR 6 9709 wagers · RTP 109,10%

European RouletteR 5 6068 wagers · RTP 26,08%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 18,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 43,75%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7921 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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