Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #895 of 1,000

P0609

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 13,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 255

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 745

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 982Deviation -R 7 763

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 745. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 397

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 460 to R 16 344
Finished ahead: 289 / 1,000 (28,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #717 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.036
Mean bets / session: 4.2
Loss multiplier: 1.4187×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,9% / 62,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 05829 wagers · RTP 57,46%

Craps / DiceR 5 40219 wagers · RTP 103,00%

American RouletteR 5 23217 wagers · RTP 56,40%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 2308 wagers · RTP 76,51%

BaccaratR 1 8638 wagers · RTP 53,17%

Three-Reel SlotR 9695 wagers · RTP 19,09%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8294 wagers · RTP 11,94%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

European RouletteR 4592 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4471 wagers · RTP 250,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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