Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #101 of 1,000

P0610

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 83,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 827

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 827

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 057Deviation R 3 885

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 827. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 145

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 962 to R 9 690
Finished ahead: 298 / 1,000 (29,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #654 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,07% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.814
Mean bets / session: 4.946
Loss multiplier: 1.5642×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,5% / 60,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 82426 wagers · RTP 196,79%

American RouletteR 4 57218 wagers · RTP 41,03%

Craps / DiceR 3 67614 wagers · RTP 145,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5196 wagers · RTP 67,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4906 wagers · RTP 83,89%

BlackjackR 1 0524 wagers · RTP 97,34%

BaccaratR 9514 wagers · RTP 195,00%

European RouletteR 4922 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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