Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #847 of 1,000

P0612

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 42,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 573

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 427

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 353Deviation -R 6 074

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 427. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 171

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 737 to R 21 248
Finished ahead: 281 / 1,000 (28,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #803 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.957
Mean bets / session: 3.851
Loss multiplier: 1.3835×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,7% / 52,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 8 54321 wagers · RTP 49,61%

CrashR 6 33218 wagers · RTP 106,85%

Craps / DiceR 5 51217 wagers · RTP 66,87%

European RouletteR 3 0398 wagers · RTP 66,86%

BaccaratR 1 6195 wagers · RTP 119,39%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3726 wagers · RTP 110,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2436 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 0793 wagers · RTP 140,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0695 wagers · RTP 102,62%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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