Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #106 of 1,000

P0613

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 76,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 702

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 702

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 430Deviation R 4 132

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 702. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 834

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 796 to R 19 500
Finished ahead: 315 / 1,000 (31,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #744 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,22% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.153
Mean bets / session: 3.55
Loss multiplier: 1.3717×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,2% / 67,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 82622 wagers · RTP 86,84%

Craps / DiceR 8 84917 wagers · RTP 79,74%

BlackjackR 8 15416 wagers · RTP 85,99%

American RouletteR 7 15314 wagers · RTP 37,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 388,89%

European RouletteR 2 1444 wagers · RTP 450,00%

BaccaratR 1 5013 wagers · RTP 125,37%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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