Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #66 of 1,000

P0615

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 87,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 16 291

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 6 291

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 945Deviation R 7 236

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 6 291. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 741

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 352 to R 13 218
Finished ahead: 300 / 1,000 (30,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #687 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.869
Mean bets / session: 5.326
Loss multiplier: 1.5484×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 86,9% / 80,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 32020 wagers · RTP 150,00%

American RouletteR 4 78818 wagers · RTP 261,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 50018 wagers · RTP 91,67%

CrashR 3 72414 wagers · RTP 108,93%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2 3769 wagers · RTP 67,17%

BlackjackR 1 0644 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BaccaratR 7983 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2661 wagers · RTP 196,10%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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