Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #952 of 1,000

P0616

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 31,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 82

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 918

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 580Deviation -R 8 337

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 918. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 404

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 32 886
Finished ahead: 243 / 1,000 (24,3%)
At least one ruin: 75 / 1,000 (7,5%)
Median rank: #911 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,63% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.084
Mean bets / session: 5.414
Loss multiplier: 1.5749×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,4% / 61,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9 55527 wagers · RTP 48,59%

Craps / DiceR 9 19224 wagers · RTP 117,28%

CrashR 6 98322 wagers · RTP 96,84%

BaccaratR 5 27611 wagers · RTP 70,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 15919 wagers · RTP 36,07%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 74012 wagers · RTP 61,37%

European RouletteR 2 5469 wagers · RTP 113,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8138 wagers · RTP 55,16%

Lottery / JackpotR 93915 wagers · RTP 32,80%

BlackjackR 9131 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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