Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #925 of 1,000

P0617

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 52,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 654

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 346

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 618Deviation -R 6 728

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 346. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 493

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 999 to R 25 265
Finished ahead: 209 / 1,000 (20,9%)
At least one ruin: 61 / 1,000 (6,1%)
Median rank: #918 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.181
Mean bets / session: 3.051
Loss multiplier: 1.4891×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,7% / 79,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 80330 wagers · RTP 113,89%

American RouletteR 5 76014 wagers · RTP 61,06%

CrashR 4 02712 wagers · RTP 25,18%

BlackjackR 2 8256 wagers · RTP 17,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8687 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1315 wagers · RTP 77,37%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1287 wagers · RTP 44,33%

European RouletteR 8463 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4715 wagers · RTP 212,31%

BaccaratR 562 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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