Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #658 of 1,000

P0618

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 60,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 199

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 801

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 573Deviation -R 2 229

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 801. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 343

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 316 to R 16 573
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #769 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.982
Mean bets / session: 3.458
Loss multiplier: 1.3159×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,4% / 59,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 02418 wagers · RTP 124,66%

Craps / DiceR 6 96120 wagers · RTP 85,75%

CrashR 4 62912 wagers · RTP 82,81%

American RouletteR 4 07311 wagers · RTP 28,63%

BlackjackR 1 8256 wagers · RTP 109,18%

European RouletteR 1 4315 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 3734 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1895 wagers · RTP 116,23%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4412 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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