Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #144 of 1,000

P0619

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 78,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 991

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 991

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 388Deviation R 4 379

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 991. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 020

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 992 to R 29 281
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 28 / 1,000 (2,8%)
Median rank: #896 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.423
Mean bets / session: 4.291
Loss multiplier: 1.4756×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 92,5% / 74,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 19 08928 wagers · RTP 37,35%

Craps / DiceR 17 28224 wagers · RTP 33,19%

CrashR 16 98534 wagers · RTP 203,12%

BlackjackR 6 5719 wagers · RTP 100,02%

BaccaratR 6 3719 wagers · RTP 102,65%

European RouletteR 3 6725 wagers · RTP 122,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 360,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 246,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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