Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #867 of 1,000

P0620

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 47,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 965

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 036

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 986Deviation -R 6 049

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 036. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 730

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 972 to R 21 760
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 11 / 1,000 (1,1%)
Median rank: #857 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.077
Mean bets / session: 4.238
Loss multiplier: 1.3889×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,1% / 85,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 72218 wagers · RTP 102,85%

American RouletteR 8 34820 wagers · RTP 54,95%

CrashR 8 29220 wagers · RTP 79,20%

BaccaratR 5 02310 wagers · RTP 111,91%

European RouletteR 4 37410 wagers · RTP 116,05%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 22,22%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 89519 wagers · RTP 31,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3536 wagers · RTP 40,76%

BlackjackR 1 0893 wagers · RTP 60,24%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9952 wagers · RTP 118,19%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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