Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #695 of 1,000

P0622

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 56,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 674

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 326

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 629Deviation -R 2 697

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 326. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 228

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 980 to R 17 827
Finished ahead: 298 / 1,000 (29,8%)
At least one ruin: 14 / 1,000 (1,4%)
Median rank: #803 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.22
Mean bets / session: 4.806
Loss multiplier: 1.5685×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,8% / 93,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 14 83847 wagers · RTP 78,17%

Craps / DiceR 12 06538 wagers · RTP 125,95%

CrashR 7 28224 wagers · RTP 103,86%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 4257 wagers · RTP 70,81%

European RouletteR 2 2298 wagers · RTP 52,13%

BaccaratR 2 0629 wagers · RTP 142,87%

BlackjackR 1 6625 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9214 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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