Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #959 of 1,000

P0623

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 2,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 54

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 946

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 970Deviation -R 8 976

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 946. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 845

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 882 to R 18 448
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #748 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.446
Mean bets / session: 3.834
Loss multiplier: 1.5673×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,8% / 89,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 34224 wagers · RTP 63,01%

CrashR 4 97923 wagers · RTP 86,23%

Craps / DiceR 4 76420 wagers · RTP 81,23%

European RouletteR 3 77315 wagers · RTP 0,53%

BaccaratR 2 56010 wagers · RTP 109,54%

BlackjackR 2 08413 wagers · RTP 42,99%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1675 wagers · RTP 14,31%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 06014 wagers · RTP 18,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3721 wagers · RTP 158,89%

Three-Reel SlotR 2763 wagers · RTP 80,80%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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