Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #688 of 1,000

P0624

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 42,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 709

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 291

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 477Deviation -R 2 814

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 291. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 362

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 877 to R 10 506
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #663 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.398
Mean bets / session: 3.859
Loss multiplier: 1.3076×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,8% / 79,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 43245 wagers · RTP 88,80%

CrashR 5 80025 wagers · RTP 94,00%

American RouletteR 5 10422 wagers · RTP 72,73%

BaccaratR 3 24214 wagers · RTP 92,66%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3926 wagers · RTP 96,45%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3926 wagers · RTP 150,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3926 wagers · RTP 83,33%

BlackjackR 1 3926 wagers · RTP 33,33%

European RouletteR 9284 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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