Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #533 of 1,000

P0625

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 65,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 878

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 122

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 230Deviation -R 893

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 122. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 773

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 640 to R 17 563
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #743 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.896
Mean bets / session: 5.124
Loss multiplier: 1.2665×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,4% / 53,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 7 59230 wagers · RTP 104,24%

CrashR 6 09021 wagers · RTP 112,82%

American RouletteR 5 44919 wagers · RTP 113,38%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 01722 wagers · RTP 55,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0416 wagers · RTP 74,17%

European RouletteR 1 7605 wagers · RTP 125,28%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 6937 wagers · RTP 14,77%

BaccaratR 1 6305 wagers · RTP 132,55%

BlackjackR 1 5134 wagers · RTP 104,82%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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