Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #708 of 1,000

P0626

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 55,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 424

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 576

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 343Deviation -R 3 233

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 576. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 721

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 957 to R 25 459
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 4 / 1,000 (0,4%)
Median rank: #786 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,12% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.041
Mean bets / session: 4.343
Loss multiplier: 1.5268×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 92,8% / 97,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 07422 wagers · RTP 79,55%

American RouletteR 7 34020 wagers · RTP 180,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 77113 wagers · RTP 46,15%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 75019 wagers · RTP 31,58%

European RouletteR 4 03711 wagers · RTP 18,18%

BaccaratR 2 9368 wagers · RTP 121,88%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 2026 wagers · RTP 92,38%

BlackjackR 1 8355 wagers · RTP 160,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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