Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #73 of 1,000

P0627

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 85,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 455

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 455

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 033Deviation R 6 489

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 455. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 981

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 366 to R 13 702
Finished ahead: 334 / 1,000 (33,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #638 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,01% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 4.2
Loss multiplier: 1.535×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,8% / 97,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 12 88040 wagers · RTP 130,00%

CrashR 4 50814 wagers · RTP 76,79%

American RouletteR 3 54211 wagers · RTP 190,91%

European RouletteR 2 5678 wagers · RTP 200,70%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 111,11%

BlackjackR 1 6105 wagers · RTP 20,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 41,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2884 wagers · RTP 59,46%

BaccaratR 1 2884 wagers · RTP 97,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies