Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #90 of 1,000

P0628

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 81,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 642

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 642

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 213Deviation R 5 855

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 642. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 351

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 960 to R 21 153
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #842 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,37% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.132
Mean bets / session: 4.31
Loss multiplier: 1.547×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 85,2% / 52,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 13 20622 wagers · RTP 100,33%

American RouletteR 12 01520 wagers · RTP 159,33%

CrashR 9 50019 wagers · RTP 140,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 50015 wagers · RTP 84,15%

BaccaratR 6 75411 wagers · RTP 106,36%

BlackjackR 4 9128 wagers · RTP 118,75%

European RouletteR 3 5926 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 50,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 12,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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