Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #97 of 1,000

P0629

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 80,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 092

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 092

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 919Deviation R 7 011

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 092. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 645

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 945 to R 19 245
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #855 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.204
Mean bets / session: 4.155
Loss multiplier: 1.3566×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 87,1% / 58,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 21 05843 wagers · RTP 127,32%

American RouletteR 15 25131 wagers · RTP 100,21%

Craps / DiceR 10 67722 wagers · RTP 132,29%

BaccaratR 5 42311 wagers · RTP 90,91%

BlackjackR 2 4655 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 2 4435 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4793 wagers · RTP 75,93%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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