Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #168 of 1,000

P0630

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 75,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 457

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 457

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 903Deviation R 2 360

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 457. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 094

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 628 to R 27 118
Finished ahead: 256 / 1,000 (25,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #799 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.915
Mean bets / session: 4.159
Loss multiplier: 1.2736×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,8% / 97,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 12 36921 wagers · RTP 79,09%

Craps / DiceR 12 05721 wagers · RTP 122,58%

CrashR 10 74623 wagers · RTP 115,41%

European RouletteR 4 9998 wagers · RTP 116,34%

BlackjackR 4 9029 wagers · RTP 106,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 3967 wagers · RTP 38,91%

BaccaratR 1 8773 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 92,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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