Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #890 of 1,000

P0631

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 36,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 382

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 618

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 948Deviation -R 6 670

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 618. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 587

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 798 to R 24 496
Finished ahead: 226 / 1,000 (22,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #853 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.477
Mean bets / session: 4.579
Loss multiplier: 1.3794×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,5% / 60,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 17 31143 wagers · RTP 86,60%

Craps / DiceR 10 75726 wagers · RTP 96,72%

European RouletteR 9 71024 wagers · RTP 60,08%

CrashR 6 40325 wagers · RTP 131,06%

BaccaratR 3 99711 wagers · RTP 63,62%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 12712 wagers · RTP 28,21%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4619 wagers · RTP 36,24%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1904 wagers · RTP 179,98%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5303 wagers · RTP 43,77%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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