Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #41 of 1,000

P0632

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 88,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 23 099

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 13 099

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 071Deviation R 15 170

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 13 099. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 484

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 685 to R 22 794
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #814 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.868
Mean bets / session: 5.663
Loss multiplier: 1.2911×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,5% / 51,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 14 95728 wagers · RTP 93,87%

American RouletteR 14 42327 wagers · RTP 102,52%

CrashR 12 98426 wagers · RTP 153,77%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 34011 wagers · RTP 110,28%

BaccaratR 3 7807 wagers · RTP 98,57%

European RouletteR 3 7807 wagers · RTP 300,00%

BlackjackR 3 2166 wagers · RTP 74,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 75,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 333,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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