Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #939 of 1,000

P0633

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 10,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 230

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 770

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 781Deviation -R 8 989

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 770. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 766

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 877 to R 21 935
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #821 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.197
Mean bets / session: 3.273
Loss multiplier: 1.5778×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,5% / 58,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 51823 wagers · RTP 43,16%

American RouletteR 4 80319 wagers · RTP 89,17%

CrashR 4 63015 wagers · RTP 29,51%

Craps / DiceR 3 69415 wagers · RTP 62,43%

BaccaratR 1 7624 wagers · RTP 51,31%

European RouletteR 1 7258 wagers · RTP 173,10%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7475 wagers · RTP 23,80%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3813 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2283 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1643 wagers · RTP 27,74%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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