Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #888 of 1,000

P0634

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 47,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 408

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 592

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 060Deviation -R 7 532

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 592. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 383

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 903 to R 27 361
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #877 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.46
Mean bets / session: 5.803
Loss multiplier: 1.5291×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 93,2% / 67,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 6 99236 wagers · RTP 103,10%

CrashR 6 88136 wagers · RTP 78,30%

Craps / DiceR 5 18230 wagers · RTP 92,24%

American RouletteR 4 49625 wagers · RTP 89,19%

European RouletteR 2 29514 wagers · RTP 33,99%

BlackjackR 2 2458 wagers · RTP 42,94%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 59912 wagers · RTP 6,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5949 wagers · RTP 28,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4439 wagers · RTP 65,12%

Lottery / JackpotR 6947 wagers · RTP 28,82%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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