Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #566 of 1,000

P0635

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 66,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 562

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 438

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 488Deviation -R 951

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 438. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 214

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 667 to R 20 952
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #798 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.06
Mean bets / session: 4.2
Loss multiplier: 1.4784×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,1% / 88,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 23119 wagers · RTP 124,02%

CrashR 6 22316 wagers · RTP 99,21%

American RouletteR 5 56911 wagers · RTP 83,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 00016 wagers · RTP 78,13%

BlackjackR 3 9148 wagers · RTP 135,51%

European RouletteR 3 7336 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 5519 wagers · RTP 167,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7137 wagers · RTP 14,59%

BaccaratR 1 2572 wagers · RTP 84,55%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 16,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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