Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #953 of 1,000

P0636

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 5,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 81

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 919

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 856Deviation -R 9 063

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 919. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 356

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 917 to R 26 221
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #845 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.029
Mean bets / session: 3.967
Loss multiplier: 1.3921×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,0% / 83,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 74921 wagers · RTP 57,82%

American RouletteR 3 37023 wagers · RTP 34,09%

CrashR 2 44018 wagers · RTP 43,59%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 71815 wagers · RTP 2,79%

BlackjackR 1 36811 wagers · RTP 78,14%

European RouletteR 7528 wagers · RTP 56,52%

BaccaratR 7387 wagers · RTP 10,98%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5623 wagers · RTP 1,34%

Three-Reel SlotR 3634 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1032 wagers · RTP 190,29%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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