Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #753 of 1,000

P0638

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 44,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 602

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 398

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 999Deviation -R 4 399

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 398. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 532

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 272 to R 16 086
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #733 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.245
Mean bets / session: 3.165
Loss multiplier: 1.52×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,5% / 79,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 06714 wagers · RTP 109,74%

Craps / DiceR 4 14313 wagers · RTP 110,74%

American RouletteR 3 61611 wagers · RTP 40,76%

BlackjackR 3 1139 wagers · RTP 121,94%

CrashR 2 3118 wagers · RTP 47,60%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5447 wagers · RTP 87,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4077 wagers · RTP 8,81%

BaccaratR 1 1294 wagers · RTP 67,53%

European RouletteR 1 1283 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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