Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #734 of 1,000

P0639

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 49,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 030

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 970

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 493Deviation -R 3 477

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 970. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 931

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 609 to R 14 902
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.859
Mean bets / session: 4.738
Loss multiplier: 1.2835×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 94,0% / 69,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 11 68441 wagers · RTP 111,08%

American RouletteR 7 90525 wagers · RTP 28,80%

Craps / DiceR 6 45723 wagers · RTP 128,17%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 3806 wagers · RTP 36,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3424 wagers · RTP 25,59%

European RouletteR 1 1963 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0594 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8654 wagers · RTP 109,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

BlackjackR 4792 wagers · RTP 94,78%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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