Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #828 of 1,000

P0640

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 28,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 087

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 913

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 130Deviation -R 5 783

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 913. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 881

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 641 to R 14 475
Finished ahead: 311 / 1,000 (31,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #698 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,30% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.95
Mean bets / session: 3.2
Loss multiplier: 1.4078×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,2% / 92,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 60916 wagers · RTP 30,26%

American RouletteR 6 37517 wagers · RTP 69,88%

Craps / DiceR 5 48813 wagers · RTP 112,90%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 3358 wagers · RTP 98,14%

BaccaratR 2 6936 wagers · RTP 154,78%

European RouletteR 1 1883 wagers · RTP 39,39%

BlackjackR 1 1773 wagers · RTP 113,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7213 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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