Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #804 of 1,000

P0641

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 28,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 581

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 419

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 868Deviation -R 5 551

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 419. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 626

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 994 to R 15 720
Finished ahead: 328 / 1,000 (32,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #681 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,66% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.868
Mean bets / session: 3.131
Loss multiplier: 1.327×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,8% / 84,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 52718 wagers · RTP 114,72%

Craps / DiceR 4 74413 wagers · RTP 114,67%

American RouletteR 4 48811 wagers · RTP 20,01%

European RouletteR 4 25011 wagers · RTP 41,36%

BaccaratR 2 1725 wagers · RTP 100,97%

BlackjackR 1 0603 wagers · RTP 65,66%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7982 wagers · RTP 60,60%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1861 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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