Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #116 of 1,000

P0642

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 72,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 987

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 987

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 281Deviation R 3 268

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 987. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 395

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 857 to R 21 432
Finished ahead: 326 / 1,000 (32,6%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #724 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,03% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 3.027
Loss multiplier: 1.5251×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,4% / 73,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9 34818 wagers · RTP 105,50%

CrashR 6 49813 wagers · RTP 94,20%

BlackjackR 5 79611 wagers · RTP 118,58%

Craps / DiceR 5 78811 wagers · RTP 162,92%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 62,04%

European RouletteR 1 6353 wagers · RTP 102,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 12,50%

BaccaratR 5571 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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