Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #33 of 1,000

P0643

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 90,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 26 146

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 16 146

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 5 169Deviation R 21 315

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 16 146. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 381

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 993 to R 25 647
Finished ahead: 200 / 1,000 (20,0%)
At least one ruin: 38 / 1,000 (3,8%)
Median rank: #912 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.23
Mean bets / session: 3.716
Loss multiplier: 1.4685×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,4% / 70,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 25 88230 wagers · RTP 187,64%

BlackjackR 13 24515 wagers · RTP 120,00%

Craps / DiceR 11 01813 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 9 30019 wagers · RTP 47,55%

BaccaratR 5 1516 wagers · RTP 102,85%

European RouletteR 3 5324 wagers · RTP 450,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 22,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 57,14%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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